Philip Elmer-DeWitt at Apple 2.0 keeps track of the how well Wall Street analysts — and amateur Apple watchers — predict the fortunes of the company. An overzealous estimate of earnings that isn’t met by a correspondingly big figure by Apple always seems to result in a hit on share price, so Elmer-DeWitt has been ranking the analysts by accuracy.
In the not-so-distant past, the amateur stock watchers were doing a much better job than the professionals, but that’s changed. Now the professionals have taken eight of the top ten positions on Elmer-DeWitt’s list. He points out that this doesn’t necessarily mean anything, since professionals also filled nine of the bottom ten in his “Top 40.”
Based on the last nine quarters, the most accurate analyst on The Street appears to be Colin Gillis of BCG Partners. Some other familiar names from the Apple earnings calls don’t fare as well. Gene “Apple TV” Munster of Piper Jaffray is about halfway down the list in the #19 spot, while perennial earnings call questioner Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley barely made the Top 40 by coming in at #39.
During the second quarter earnings call some time in April, we’ll be sure to give participants in our live blog Elmer-DeWitt’s ranking information for each analyst who asks a question so you know how much credence to give their opinions.