Apple put an end to months of analyst “will they or won’t they” handwringing at the recent iPad/Mac event when it did, indeed, unveil an updated iPad mini with a Retina display. As a direct consequence, we have an answer to the question: just how reliable is a “reliable” analyst?
Let’s find out.
- Source: The rumour blogs’ favourite “accurate” analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities. We’ll be hearing more from him later. Lots more.
- Read this piece and try to find a single thing Kuo got correct.
- Source: “References in the iOS 7 SDK sent to us by a developer.”
- The iPad mini skipped the A6 entirely, going from A5 straight to A7. And, as we all know, the updated model has a Retina display.
- Source: “KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has a fairly solid track record (sic) in predicting Apple’s product plans”
- There is no such thing as an A7X chip in the new iPads, and the “low-cost iPad mini without a Retina display” is – surprise – just the first-gen iPad mini.
- Source: Digitimes.
- SHOCKER: Digitimes gets another one wrong.
- Source: “Analysis” is probably the polite term for it.
- Apple answered the question this article’s headline posed with a definitive “yes.”
- Source: IHS iSuppli
- Unless Apple misses its late November launch target for the Retina iPad mini, this report is dead wrong. Remember, kids: “supply-chain checks” aren’t an accurate barometer for what’s happening with Apple’s product line.
- Source: Sketchy Chinese website. And probably Photoshop.
- The iPad mini isn’t available in gold. My eyes are eternally grateful.
- Source: “Supply chain checks”
- Another publication relies on supply chain checks as its source and ends up with egg on its face.
- Source: “often reliable (sic) KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo”
- Neither of the new iPads have this camera hardware. Wrong again.
- Source: Analyst Brian White.
- “Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brian White has had his fair share of hits and misses over the years,” BGR points out in the opener. Chalk up one more miss… oops, all out of chalk.
- Source: Amazon’s French and German sites.
- No new Apple TV hardware launched.
- Source: “Analyst Ming-Chi-Kuo, who has a fairly strong track record (sic) in predicting future Apple products”
- iPhones are indeed in short supply. Haswell Macs did indeed launch. But Kuo once again completely whiffed it with his iPad predictions.
- Source: Ming-Chi Kuo (again)
- Kuo abruptly contradicted himself in the weeks leading up to the iPad event and said the iPad mini would get a Retina display. He therefore got much of this revised guesswork correct, but he still incorrectly predicted an A7X processor for the full-sized iPad and updated camera hardware.
- Source: Some French website.
- They got it half right: MacBook Pro updates came out in late October, but the Mac Pro isn’t coming until December.
- Source: China Times.
- Notably, this contradicted “well-connected analyst” Ming-Chi Kuo, who had expected the new MacBook Pros to be introduced in September. Someone pull this guy out of the game, he can’t pitch.
Apple’s Next iPad Mini Will Likely Have ‘Retina’ Display From Samsung (Wall Street Journal)
Next iPad Takes After Thin, Light Mini (Wall Street Journal)
The Wall Street Journal has two good guesses during this rumor cycle. I’m stunned.
- Source: “Sources with knowledge of the launch plans”
- Looks like those sources were right.
- Source: Analyst Brian White.
- It irks me having to award points to this guy, because it doesn’t take a genius to say, “Hmm, the next iPad is going to be a slightly different size from the current one… that probably means new Smart Covers.” But I’m trying to be fair here.
- Source: Macotakara.
- Turns out the new iPad mini is indeed slightly thicker than its predecessor. And it seems everyone is still too shocked over the device being in virtually every respect a shrunk-down version of the iPad Air to remember to complain about this.
- Source: “A reputable case manufacturer”
- TUAW’s specs: 240.1 x 169.6 x 7.5 millimeters
- Actual specs: 240 x 169.5 x 7.5 millimeters
Considering the height and width are both off by only a single micrometer, I’ll give this one to you, Mr Sande. Which is a good thing, because I really wasn’t looking forward to a 15-hour flight to Colorado to beat you with that herring.
I know I’m shouting into a hurricane here, but a post-mortem of just three months worth of iPad rumors definitively shows one thing: analyst predictions about what Apple will or will not release are worthless. Even the analysts widely touted as “accurate” are anything but, and the few things they do get right can easily be chalked up to following the logical patterns that Apple itself has established.
In short, it bears repeating until it finally gets through everyone’s neutronium-lined skulls: analysts have no idea what they’re talking about when they’re talking about Apple. Nothing they say is newsworthy. Stop re-publishing everything they say unless you want to keep on looking as foolish as you already do.