Sunday, October 23, 2016

Why AAPL inventory did not increase on report iPhone sales: China revenue more than nullified increases

With Apple having declared alltime report iPhone sales, you may have anticipated analysts and traders to be amazed, and to find the AAPL share-price rise consequently. The inventory is really down a small – therefore what offers?

The response, like the one to a great number of questions now, is: China. Here is the first iPhone launch where mainland China, and maybe not only Hong Kong, continues to be contained from day-one. This implies the opening weekend revenues of 13M versus 10M last yr aren’t like-for-like.

Apple hasn’t shown what portion of iPhone income were manufactured in China, but we can do some again-of-an-envelope amounts to get a rough concept … 

If we include together Apple’s Q2 and Q3 amounts, we are able to find that Apple’s earnings from China over that six-month period totalled $30B out of an overall total of $107B – or 28%.


We don’t understand how that reduces across commodities, but it’s a safe guess that China is purchasing more iPhones than iPads or Apples, therefore it appears sensible to conclude that someplace close to 30% of the year’s starting weekend iPhone sales were in China. But allow’s stick to that 28% as an instance.

13M I phones were offered by Apple globally in its opening-weekend. Taking 28% of the number to take China, that’s 3.64M. Consider that from 13M and the like-for-like comparison with last year is 9.36M – a fall from last year’s 10M.

I’ll be the first to acknowledge this is all quite rough and ready number crunching, but it’s nevertheless obvious that there’s a huge difference between Tim Cook’s gushing speak of “fantastic” desire that observed I phones revenue “blowing past any preceding first weekend sales outcomes in Apple’s background” and the fundamental reality.

That’s not to state that becoming close to equalling last year’s report revenue in rsquo & an S yr isn;t ndash & a remarkable accomplishment; it’s. Last time there was pent up desire for bigger-display iPhones, and this can be a SModel yr using the sam-e dimensions. But it can explain why the marketplace isn’t rushing out to purchase more AAPL inventory in reaction. Together with the NASDAQ as a complete down 3%, Apple did efficiently find a small increase from the marketplace, only not a spectacular one.

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