Apple Q2 2020 earnings will be down, but not disastrously so

We’re waiting for Apple Q2 2020 earnings to be announced on Thursday, and with both supply-chain disruption and reduced demand due to the coronavirus crisis, it’s obvious that the company’s financials are going to take a hit.

But while analysts do expect both revenue and earnings per share to be down, they are not expecting a bloodbath…

Reuters reports that the Wall Street consensus is for a 6% drop in revenue and 11% fall in net income for the company’s fiscal Q2/calendar Q1.

Apple’s revenue for the same quarter last year was $58.02 billion. It originally offered high guidance of $63-67 billion for this year, likely due to high expectations for the 2020 iPhone SE, which was originally planned to go on sale in March. That guidance was subsequently withdrawn, with Apple citing uncertainties over the impact of the coronavirus crisis.

PED30 separates out three different analyst revenue roundups:

  • Apple 3.0 (its own small-scale roundup): $54.12 billion (down 6.72%)
  • Estimize (crowdsourced): $55.23 billion (down 4.8%)
  • Thomson Financial: $54.60 billion (down 5.89%)

Removing Apple’s original guidance from the equation — as that clearly reflected the company’s plans to see iPhone SE revenue during the quarter — this would be a relatively modest hit for such a major event.

Reuters says that discounted iPhone 11 sales will have played a role in keeping Chinese sales buoyant in Q2, while iPhone SE should do the same for the upcoming quarter.

Apple’s discounts on the iPhone 11 in China and the release of a new low-price SE model have put the company in a better position than rivals to weather a coronavirus-related plunge in global smartphone demand […]

Earlier this month, several online retailers in China slashed prices of the iPhone 11 by as much as 18% — a tactic Apple has used in the past to boost demand. And while initial social media reaction to the new iPhone SE was muted, analysts said they were seeing a pick up in demand. […]

‘Apple is better positioned than most to experience a rapid recovery in a post COVID world,’ Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note. ‘We see demand as pushed out, not canceled.’

He added that the launch of the $399 iPhone SE suggested that Apple’s supply chain was getting back on its feet after weeks of shutdown earlier this year.

In addition to Apple Q2 2020 earnings, analysts were also polled on their expectations for fiscal Q3. They expect the coronavirus impact to continue, though with far less consensus in their forecasts. Estimates range from 2% to 10% down year-on-year.

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