IDC: China stagnation cuts smartphone forecast, less costly iPhone 6C would not help iOS deteriorate Android lead

BEIJING, CHINA - OCTOBER 17: Apple store employees welcome the customers to buy iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus at an Apple store on October 17, 2014 in Beijing, China. Apple Inc began delivering its smartphone iPhone6 and iPhone6 Plus to the Chinese mainland on Friday. (Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images)

(Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images)

IDC released an upgraded forecast today lowering its expectations for worldwide smartphone deliveries this year with a continuing slowdown in growth in China pointed out as the biggest factor to the lower than anticipated shipments. It also shared some insight into anticipated growth for Apple in the years to come, predicting Android’s existing 81 % share of the marketplace by operating system will likely hold strong through 2019 which a less costly iPhone 6C design would not do much to aid.

When it comes to Apple, IDC notes that it anticipates Android to preserve its around 80 % share of the marketplace by running system through 2019. It likewise argues that a lower cost iPhone “6C”, something that has actually been rumored to perhaps show up together with next generation iPhone 6S and 6S Plus designs, would do little to aid Apple handle Android’s lead that will mainly experience growth from the sub $ 200 category. With that in mind, IDC forecasts Apple will grow from 192.7 million devices in 2014 to 223.7 million units this year and 269.6 million units by 2019. Compare that to Android up from 1.06 billion in 2014 to an anticipated 1.16 billion this year and 1.54 billion in 2019.

As for China, IDC notes that the smartphone market grew 1.2 % year over year in 2015. That’s a significant bump below the 19.7 % growth for the nation in 2014 when it made up around 32.3 % of all smartphone shipments. That downturn in development accounts for IDC’s upgraded forecast of 10.4 % growth in 2015 with an overall 1.44 billion units. While China continues to make up the biggest market by volume in its forecast, IDC anticipates the nation’s share of worldwide shipments will certainly drop from 32.3 % in 2013 to 23.1 % by 2019.

China clearly stays an essential market. However, the focus will certainly be more on exports than intake as domestic development slows considerably,” stated Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “India has caught a great deal of the interest that China previously got and it’s now the market with the most prospective benefit. The fascinating thing to watch will be the possibility of manufacturing moving from China and Vietnam over to India. We’ve started to see this move as a way to cut costs and take advantage of financial advantages associated with localized India manufacturing. It is the regional suppliers like Micromax, Lava, and Intex that will feel the most press from worldwide competitors within its market.”

The insight into smartphone growth in China comes just as Apple CEO Tim Cook released an uncommon mid-quarter upgrade in the press yesterday (despite potentially breaking SEC policies) comforting financiers that Apple has actually seen strong growth in China in July and August. Prepare kept in mind, “Development in iPhone activations has actually accelerated over the past couple of weeks, and we have had the best performance of the year for the App Store in China during the last 2 weeks.”

Cook included, “Obviously I cannot forecast the future, however our efficiency up until now this quarter is reassuring … development of the middle class over the next a number of years will be big.”

You can take a look at IDC’s complete report here.

Submitted under: iOS Devices, Tech Industry Tagged: Android, Cheaper iPhone, china, IDC, iOS, iPhone, iPhone 6c, marketshare, Smartphones

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