It’s 2015, which suggests that every analyst that claimed “By 2015 …” in the past decade needs a fact check. Let’s start with this delicious little nugget from the soothsayers at Gartner, shall we? Baseding on Gartner’s 2011 report, which aimed to forecast the next four years of the smartphone market, the following is expected to be true as of today:
Android will certainly be the # 1 mobile os. – True. Congrats.
Android will certainly command a 48.8 % market share. – False, 84.4 %. Not even close, truly.
iOS will hold a 17.2 % share of the market. – False, 11.7 %. Closer-ish?
Research Moving (BlackBerry) will hold 11.1 % of the marketplace. – False, 0.5 %. Study In Movement doesn’t also officially already existing anymore, to make sure that’s an additional mark against them. This may be the most over-the-top of all, in knowledge.
And this one is my favorite:
Microsoft will the be # 2 mobile phone maker thanks to its Nokia deal, with 19.5 % of the marketplace, beating iPhone. – False, 2.9 %. Nowhere near Apple.
The only thing Gartner’s analysts had right was that Android would have a comfortable lead in overall mobile phone market share, and even that prediction was wildly out of whack. It’s impressive that a study company could be this incorrect and yet still be trusted for their evaluation.
Note: The information utilized for contrast comes from the Q3 2014 physiques by IDC, so the numbers might be somewhat different today, yet definitely not nearly enough to hold any of these false forecasts from another location true.
Huge hat-tip to Terence! Many thanks!